As an investor I look at the future of the company, not at the past. In this case, the future of Apple looks less promising than all the analysts will have you believe. Apple has a few glaring weaknesses.
First of all, a large part of iProduct sales revolve around the near godly status of Steve Jobs. His attention for detail and ability to spin any (perceived) flaw of iProducts contribute at least 40% to current sales. With Jobs out of the picture, Apple will just be another company.
Second weakness is (lack of) innovation. Contrary to what most fanboiz want you to believe, Apple isn't an innovator but an aggregator. It takes existing concepts (MP3 player, PC, mobile phone) and turns them into iProducts to take over the existing market. This worked with the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad. Question is, what is next? Unless Apple comes up with something truly new, it will be hard to redefine yet another market.
Third is competition. Apple rules the tablet market because it was the first company to come out with a usable combination of hard- and software. So far, the competition has been too divided to make a meaningful response. This will change very soon. Google has taken the first step by keeping the code of Honeycomb restricted. This will unify the Android market which will make it a more attractive platform to program for. It will also prepare users to start paying for Android apps, something that so far has kept the truly great apps off the marketplace.
The last weakness is Apples arrogance and with it; in-transparency and inconsistency. Apple has done everything it can to keep control of programmers and content providers. If Google plays it right, they will offer better terms and, more importantly, give programmers the feeling that they are partners and not underlings that ruled by the whim of the Appstore police and their overlord Jobs. Just visit the app developer forums and you get a feeling of how programmers feel when they submit their work to Apple. They often are like children waiting for a grade from their teacher. The murky politics behind it don't make that any better. Why is it that content providers were told that they couldn't submit anything even remotely resembling adult content but when Playboy comes in, Jobs' crusade against adult entertainment is suddenly put on hold? If the Android market can manage a transparent and consistent policy on what is allowed and what not, they will win this race. Last but not least, Jobs should stop treating customers as dumb ignorant sheep. If Apple decides not to support Flash, it should tel people the real reason instead of making up stories about "obsolete technology". Flash allows users to circumvent the appstore and play games for free. It also allows content providers to serve content without appifying it, denying Apple a piece of the pie. That is the only business reason Apple should and has denied Flash on it's products.
It's true that investing in Android is not as easy as investing in Apple. One is a company, the other a platform. In the long run however, the risk that you take when you invest in Apple NOW might just be too great compared to the relatively modest rewards you will get. Will Apple still exist in 10 years time? Undoubtedly. Will it still be this mythical super company lead by a godlike CEO? Not likely.
